until people realized what a time bomb it is
With little or no family support for the elderly and govt being
completely burdened with elderly Care, economies are, in great trouble
Very son India may bei the same soup thanks to the anti family laws
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Finland Seeks Non-Nokia Growth to Sidestep Portugal's Fate
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ari Koskinen counts himself lucky after he got
a job at Finland's national jobless association.
The 37-year-old technology specialist is helping local groups support
the country's 9.8 percent unemployed as the northernmost euro member
grapples with the decline in its two main industries, technology and
paper.
"Unemployment brings many difficulties -- alcoholism, health
problems," Koskinen said in a July 5 phone interview from Helsinki.
"Finns are vulnerable to depression when the jobs go and there's no
more work."
Finland, one of six AAA rated euro countries, may face a similar fate
to junk-graded Portugal in the next decade unless it finds new growth
industries soon, said Timo Tyrvaeinen, chief economist at
Helsinki-based Aktia Oyj. Mobile-phone maker Nokia Oyj has announced
1,900 job cuts in Finland since last year, or 10 percent of its local
workforce, as its market value plunged almost 50 percent since
January. Without growth, Finland must raise debt to pay for Europe's
fastest-aging population.
"Finland has an underlying competitiveness problem and an imbalance in
public finances exacerbated by the aging population," Tyrvaeinen said
by phone. "In 10 years, we could have similar problems to those
Portugal is facing now."
The number of workers for every pensioner will drop to three from four
by 2015. That's about five years earlier than in the rest of Europe,
Luxembourg-based Eurostat estimates. Debt will swell in 2011 to more
than 50 percent of gross domestic product from 34.1 percent three
years ago, according to the European Commission.
Specter of Ireland
"The growth of debt must be stopped," said Jan von Gerich, chief
analyst at Nordea Markets in Helsinki. "Ireland had a AAA rating, a
lower debt level than Finland and a surplus in its public sector, but
then the crisis hit and the situation changed rapidly." Moody's
Investors Service cut Ireland to junk on July 12, arguing the euro
member's 85 billion euro ($119 billion) bailout may not be enough to
keep it afloat.
While Ireland's plight was linked to over-leveraged banks, its example
remains relevant for economies where growth can't keep pace with
government spending, von Gerich said.
Europe's debt crisis has shown that failure to tackle fiscal weakness
in time can force governments to impose severe austerity measures
later. Finland risks having to "take emergency action" to fix its
finances if the country's budget drain isn't fixed "promptly," Bank of
Finland Governor Erkki Liikanen said on June 15.
Yield Widens
The difference between Finnish and German five-year government yields
widened to 36 basis points today from 35.5 points, according to
Bloomberg data. Portugal's five-year notes yielded 1,529 basis points
more than same-maturity German debt.
The six-party coalition government, led by Prime Minister Jyrki
Katainen, may struggle to find the unity needed for cuts. Katainen,
who formed his Cabinet in June after two months of talks to keep the
euro-skeptic True Finns from office, needs to persuade lawmakers it's
right to back bailouts while enduring cuts at home.
Finland's $255 billion economy, home to Europe's two biggest
papermakers, Stora Enso Oyj and UPM-Kymmene Oyj, was built on its
forests. Since the 1960s, the country's pulp industry has languished
as emerging markets produce cheaper timber. Forestry's share of the
economy dropped to 2.4 percent in 2009 from twice that in the late
1970s. It employed 2 percent of the workforce in 2009, from almost 5
percent four decades ago, government data show.
World's Largest
Nokia, based near Helsinki in Espoo, took off in the 1990s to become
the world's largest mobile-phone maker. The company's success helped
pull Finland out of recession. After contracting some 6 percent in
1991, the economy grew 4.5 percent on average in 1994 through 2000. At
the peak in 2000, Nokia accounted for 4 percent of Finland's GDP,
according to Jyrki Ali-Yrkkoe, an economist at Helsinki-based
researcher ETLA.
Now, the company's days as the powerhouse of Finnish growth are over.
Its profit sank 74 percent since 2007 and its share of the economy has
dwindled to 1.6 percent as Nokia struggles to compete with Apple
Inc.'s iPhone and devices using Google Inc.'s Android software.
Nokia said in April it will slash 7,000 jobs globally. Though some
3,000 of those positions will be transferred to technology-consulting
company Accenture Plc, the economic fallout is clear.
Nokia's Decline
The Nasdaq OMX Helsinki index is down 16 percent this year, the
second-worst performer among developed countries after Greece. Nokia
has plunged 48 percent in the period, versus a 2.6 percent dip in
Europe's benchmark Stoxx 600 Index.
"None of the traditional industries are in the kind of a growth mode"
that helps the economy, said Pasi Kuoppamaeki, chief economist at
Sampo Bank, a unit of Danske Bank A/S. "Without growth, the situation
is quite hopeless."
While the Finance Ministry estimates Finland's economy will grow 3.9
percent this year after expanding 3.6 percent in 2010, it will hardly
make up for the 8.2 percent contraction in 2009.
Aktia's Tyrvaeinen said there's still time for Finland to change
course. Programs to foster startups are running at Aalto University
and at Nokia itself, with the aim of replicating the success of "Angry
Birds" creator Rovio Mobile Oy.
Educated Population
Finland can also fall back on the industrialized world's second-best
educated population after South Korea, according to the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development. And the government has
stepped up support for entrepreneurs.
Tyrvaeinen says that may help Finland escape its reliance on a handful
of companies and avoid the mistakes of its past.
"It's a bit like in investing, where diversifying is wise," he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at
kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki at
dbenaaron1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tasneem Brogger at
tbrogger@bloomberg.net Kenneth Wong in Berlin at kwong11@bloomberg.net
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